It would take 10 seasons of 50 home runs for Stanton to reach 756 home runs. Do you know how long 10 seasons is? One way to put it in perspective is that 10 seasons ago, Barry Freaking Bonds was in the league, hitting home runs willy-nilly. It seems like he’s been gone for 20 years, but it was just 10 seasons ago that he was doing this stuff. So imagine that since then, there’s been a guy hitting 50 homers every season, without fail.
There have been 43 different 50-homer seasons in baseball history. Stanton does not have one of them. He hasn’t even hit 40 homers in a season yet. So maybe it’s a bit of a stretch to suggest that anyone could hit 50 homers every season.
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If Stanton hits 40 per season, he would get to 756 home runs in just about 13 seasons. He would be 41 years old, and he will have had to stay healthy enough to hit 40 home runs for every season, without declining at any point. It could happen. But as we know from watching players like Alex Rodriguez and Albert Pujols, it’s extraordinarily unlikely to happen.
It never is that simple. There should be buyers on one side and sellers on the other side, but it’s those gray areas and blurred lines that mess everything up. We’ve looked at how the second wild card messes the trade deadline up, but this is different. We’re not even talking about the second wild card this year because the divisional races are such a mess.
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There are three teams with impossible decisions to make at the deadline. There are a dozen with hard decisions, sure, but these these three are caught between their plans for the present and their plans for the future. Do they buy? How aggressively do they buy? What kind of prospects do they trade? Do they cross their fingers extra hard and hope everything works out?